Arctic forest futures - An integrative approach to understanding and anticipating ecological transitions in the forest-tundra ecotone
Under climate warming, the border-zone (ecotone) between boreal forest and arctic tundra may exhibit three types of ecological transition involving tall-growing woody vegetation, namely the expansion of trees and tall shrubs into currently treeless tundra, changes in tree species composition in existing forest and recovery of forest following climate-related disturbances like insect outbreaks. Each transition will cause major changes in ecosystem functions, including radiation balance, hydrology and carbon sequestration. In all cases, the recruitment of new trees from seeds is a bottleneck that will determine if and how rapidly the transitions occur. Arctic Forest Futures will develop the knowledge and tools that are needed to monitor, understand and anticipate such transitions in the north-Fennoscandian forest-tundra ecotone, using birch and pine in eastern Finnmark as the model system. We will use process-based models to better understand constraints on the growth of young birch and pine under past, present, and expected future climate scenarios. We will also identify key determinants of recruitment success in birch and pine by combining new field data gathered during the project with extensive existing data from the ecosystem-based monitoring program COAT – Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra. Finally, we will use new remote sensing and machine learning techniques to develop a semi-automated system for mapping and monitoring changes in forest distribution. In collaboration with a reference group consisting of forest managers and other stakeholders, the results from the various project activities will be compiled in a popular synthesis, where the goal is to identify the combinations of manageable and non-manageable drivers that may precipitate the different transition scenarios. The project will thus facilitate planning and adaptation in the face of the pervasive ecological changes that are expected for the forest-tundra ecotone in the coming decades.
Project facts
Name
Arctic forest futures - An integrative approach to understanding and anticipating ecological transitions in the forest-tundra ecotone
Status
Active
Duration
01.01.24 - 01.01.27